In 2024, voters around the world went to the polls in elections for national and local offices that impact them. Some of these elections were very close; others saw a clear shift in political leadership (see article for more details).
When the polls close on Election Day, ballots and electronic vote records are securely transferred to the election office where they are counted. As the count progresses, election officials report the results to the public via media outlets. These numbers are not final or certified, but provide only a snapshot of how the count is going at any given moment. Typically, these reports include only the number of Election Day precincts that have started to report their votes and may exclude the number of mail-in or early in-person ballots.
Reporters collect these unofficial results from multiple sources and compare them against each other to ensure accuracy. This collection process informs a news outlet’s prediction of a winner, which is known as a call. Depending on the race and how many ballots remain to be counted, this collecting process can continue for hours, days or even weeks until every vote has been counted and the official results are certified.
Previous research has found that electoral expectations are largely driven by partisan biases, and that this can lead to surprise results (Delavanda and Manski 2012). As such, the fact that so few voters expected Donald Trump to win might have contributed to his victory, and could also explain why so many Democratic voters were surprised when they learned the final outcome of the election.